US life expectancy to lag behind most high income countries by 2050 – Times of India

The United States would lag behind most of the high income nations and some middle-income countries in terms of overall life expectancy, a new study published in Lancet found out.
The country would only register minimal improvement in the life expectancy from 78.3 years in 2022 to 80.4 years in 2050, as per the forecasting models from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. It is predicted that life expectancy in the country is expected to rise to 79.9 years in 2035 and only by 80.4 years by 2050.
“The rapid decline of the U.S. in global rankings from 2022 to 2050 rings the alarm for immediate action,” said co-senior study author Dr. Stein Emil Vollset, an affiliate professor with the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington in Seattle.
“The U.S. must change course and find new and better health strategies and policies that slow down the decline in future health outcomes,” Vollset added in a university news release.
The study also found that America is also expected to rank progressively lower than other nations in the average number of years a person can expect to live in good health, researchers said.
The US ranking in healthy life expectancy will slip from 80th in 2022 to 108th by 2050.

In terms of overall life expectancy, the United States may fall to 66th position out of 204 countries assessed in 2050, down from 49th rank in 2022.
Researchers said this stalling of life expectancy rate is due to an “alarming trajectory of health challenges” facing the country.
For the analysis, published on December 5 in The Lancet, researchers factored in the impacts of hundreds of diseases and other health risks on the US and individual states and compared them to a set of more than 200 other countries.

Life expectancy among women vs men in the US

Women may bear the brunt of this life crisis more than men as in the analysis it has been found that life expectancy among women in the country would improve less than men’s. As per this latest estimate, the US would drop from 51st to 74th in life expectancy for women in 2050 and from 51st to 65th for males.

Reason of slight increase in Us life expectancy

As per the research, the life expectancy in the US would slightly improve due to lesser deaths caused by certain diseases like heart disease, stroke and diabetes.

Risk factors that are slowing down the life expectancy

Lower rates of obesity, smoking and drug use disorders could each lead to about a half a year increase in life expectancy by 2050.
“In spite of modest increases in life expectancy overall, our models forecast health improvements slowing down due to rising rates of obesity, which is a serious risk factor to many chronic diseases and forecasted to leap to levels never before seen,” Christopher Murray, director of IHME and co-senior author of the new research, said in a news release. “The rise in obesity and overweight rates in the U.S., with IHME forecasting over 260 million people affected by 2050, signals a public health crisis of unimaginable scale.”
IHME has not factored in the impact of GLP-1 medications that are fast becoming popular in the analysis.
It has also been estimated that the levels of drug overdose remain high and will continue to increase over the next few decades. However, date from US CDC shows that drug overdose deaths have started to decline after reaching record levels. IHME estimates that the rate of age-standardized mortality due to drug use disorders in the US will be the highest in the world, and more than twice as high as in Canada at second highest.
“The stark contrast that’s forecasted in the next 30 years comes after a concerted effort by federal, state, and local government agencies and health systems launched after the opioid crisis was declared a public health emergency in 2017. The opioid epidemic is far from over, and greater effectiveness and continued expansion of programs to prevent and treat drug use are still needed,” Ali Mokdad, IHME professor and lead author of the report, said in the news release.

The solution

It is advised that if the country eliminated risk in three key areas – environment, behavioral and metabolic risks, and childhood nutrition and vaccination, it is possible to have 550,000 fewer deaths in 2050 alone. This can bring life expectancy up by nearly four years, in line with current projections for Canada, according to the IHME forecasts.
“The rapid decline of the U.S. in global rankings from 2022 to 2050 rings the alarm for immediate action. The U.S. must change course and find new and better health strategies and policies that slow down the decline in future health outcomes,” Dr. Stein Emil Vollset, co-senior author and affiliate professor with IHME, said in the news release.
(Picture courtesy: iStock)